For the second week in a row the financial sector as a whole has shown a bit of weakness on the Medium/Long term averages and the first time in over a month it has shown weakness in the short term view. Energy continues to absolute fall out of bed in both the short and long term views, another week should put it as the weakest sector in both views. The financial stocks surged off their lows and it is only natrual for the sector to pause here. The question becomes if the pause will turn into a reversal of fortunes and I believe that is going to tied in with the economy and the consumer.

The most recent low in the stock market, and financial stocks could very end up being a low if the markets continue to move higher, however it is way to early to call this a new bull market. The consumer is still very fragile here, and while lower energy prices do help there are even more reasons for them to continue to tighten their belt. Dropping home prices, rising cost of debt, no more tax rebate checks, the list goes on and on. The biggest among this is the falling prices of homes and how much more difficult it is to get credit. Many people have been using the value of their homes as ATM machines to fund their lifestyle and this is not going to continue.

Right now, if you view the market as a means to bet on the future, people are betting that the worst is behind the markets. There may be more shoes to drop, but they won't alter the long term picture. Unfortunately I believe people are just excited over the major drop in oil and energy prices, that they feel a slight drop in oil prices will suddenly get consumer spending again and that will power the economy forward. I just don't see that happening, the consumer still has reasons to worry about their job and their wealth. I just don't see them spending their money any more freely because they suddenly have to pay a little less at the pump.

In the end, nothing has really changed for the market, in my opinion. The credit crisis still looms, the economy is still weak and getting weaker, all that has really changed is oil has dropped in price as demand has fallen. Which, in the end, is also a sign of a weak global economy. None of these things are good for the markets, however new bull markets do start by climbing such a wall of worries, but I feel this mini bull is going to fall on it's back.

Trades: No new trades.

This Portfolio scans the stocks in the S&P 500 index at the start of each quarter and buys the top 12 rated stocks based on the MLT+Vol Rating calculation. Each buy is 2% of the value of the portfolio (24% per quarter) and are held for one year.

Trades: No new trades.

This Portfolio scanes a custom set of about 600-700 stocks from all sectors, styles, and sizes. At the start of each quarter the top 16 rated stocks based on the MLT+Vol Rating calculation are bought. Each buy is 1.5% of the value of the portfolio (24% per quarter) and are held for one year.

Trades: No new trades.

Experimental Portfolio! This Portfolio uses the aggregate data for all stocks on the Noiseless Return web site based upon the MLT+Vol Rating Calculations. The fund will buy ETFs for the top two reported sectors at the start of the quarter and are held onto for one year. Each ETF we buy will be 12% of the portfolio's value (24% per Quarter).